A Year Ago, San Francisco Sellers Split the Difference. Not This Summer.

Across the twelve weeks ending August 23, 2026, sale-to-list ratios climbed in most of the territory from Brisbane to San Bruno, with San Francisco's swing the sharpest and San Mateo the one market moving the other way.

A year ago, closing a deal in San Francisco still meant some give in the number. Buyers had room to push back, and plenty of sellers ended up meeting them partway. That posture has changed, and nowhere as sharply as San Francisco itself.

Start with what sellers were actually taking home. A year ago, homes in San Francisco closed at an average of about 112% of list price, already a premium, but one buyers could still chip away at. This period, that average climbed to about 136% of asking. That is the largest jump of any market in the territory, and the highest average sale-to-list ratio anywhere we track.

Daly City moved the same direction, at a smaller scale. A year ago, sellers there were settling for about 102% of asking. This period, that average reached roughly 109%. Sellers who used to negotiate down are now holding closer to their number, or beating it.

Brisbane is the more interesting case, because its price line did not cooperate. A year ago, Brisbane sellers were averaging about 98% of list price. This period, that average rose to about 104%, even as Brisbane's median sale price fell about 4% year over year. Homes there are fetching less, and sellers are giving up less to get it. Leverage at the table and the size of the check are not the same thing.

San Mateo is the one market that broke the pattern entirely. A year ago, San Mateo sellers were getting exactly list price on average, 100%. This period, that average slipped to about 99%, even as San Mateo's median sale price rose about 17% year over year. Homes there sold for noticeably more, and sellers still gave up a little ground to get the deal done. It is the opposite shape from almost everywhere else in the territory.

Put those two stories side by side and the takeaway is not "prices up, sellers winning." It is that price and negotiating leverage moved independently, and which one moved depended on where you were standing. San Francisco and Daly City sellers gained ground at the table. Brisbane sellers gained ground even with a softer price. San Mateo sellers gave a little ground back even with a stronger one.

For a buyer touring San Francisco this season, that swing means an offer landing above the asking number is close to the norm now, not a surprise worth agonizing over. For a seller weighing how firm to hold on price in Daly City or Brisbane, the last twelve weeks say buyers have shown they will meet a confident number. For anyone shopping San Mateo, the asking price still leaves some room to talk, even in a market where sale prices themselves keep climbing.

What is worth watching next period is whether San Francisco's swing holds at these levels or eases back toward where it sat a year ago, and whether San Mateo keeps giving ground at the table even as its prices keep rising. Those two questions, more than any single average, will say whether this summer's shift is the new shape of the market or a season that passes.

These figures come from MLS sold data aggregated by ZIP code across all residential properties, for the twelve weeks ending August 23, 2026.